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Open letter to Captain Amarinder Singh June 13, 2016

Posted by simarp in : Education , add a comment

Dear Captain Singh,

Please accept my congratulations for your party working hard to make you lose Punjab 2017. With Kamal Nath as your super boss, you also lose your last chance to be, once again, the CM of Punjab.  Remember Kamal Nath? Yes, the man you had accused of acting against Sikhs and was one of your reasons to leave Congress, yes he is your new super boss.

Second thoughts, you have a chance still. Go ahead and read history of the House of Patiala and follow the tradition of sailing with the wind. You have shown great acumen in the past by keeping your Royal Family values of jumping and dumping for your survival, intact. You demonstrated your agility by seamless entries and exits, Congress-to-Akalis-to-Congress, you have always had you game, set and match all perfectly curated. Congratulations again.

It is time for you to act like your “esteemed / traitor” ancestor, Maharaja Karam Singh. A quick recap for you, Maharaja Karam Singh joined hands with the British after Maharaja Ranjit Singh’s demise and fought against Sikhs and Lahore Darbar in what is popularly known as First Anglo-Sikh War. In my humble opinion, you should do a Karam Singh on Congress, create your own party and sign a treaty with BJP. BJP is anyway looking out for options to get away from SAD, you could be that option for them. Punjab BJP is not too much involved in drugs, they are only accused of corruption and enjoying drug money dolled out to them. Corruption, of course is your forte, aligning with BJP is gonna ensure no lack of funds, enough of drug money around without any stigma of earning it, the only challenge being someone who goes by the name Arun Jaitley. For Arun Jaitley, a grand party hosted in his honor, a Nazrana of sorts at one of your palaces and a public embrace can do the trick, just embarrass yourself a bit and you are home, again. Congratulations!

Your breaking away from Congress, and BJP breaking free from SAD leads to a four corner contest in all constituencies, a perfect recipe to ensure that you would be the next “Singh is King” of Punjab. You may leave 15-20 seats where you either don’t put up candidates against BJP or put up dummy candidates. This would ensure that on rest of the seats, it is your new party, AAP, SAD  and Congress contesting. With you gone, Congress may give a bigger role to Manpreet Badal, giving your party and AAP grab all the anti-Badal attention and all the anti-Badal votes.  Wow feeling, right?

Doing a bit of projection, AAP and you can get 35-40 seats each, rest 40 odd seats would get almost evenly split between SAD, BJP and Congress. You have nailed it. You know horse trading much better than AAP,  and if needed you can split whatever is left of Congress and SAD to your advantage. Fantastico, it is all totaling up right, maths is in your favor.

You are home Captain Amarinder Singh, order your ladoos now, you will need them.

 

Best regards

 

Simarprit Singh

Born in Patiala and brought up in Delhi. I always insist that I was not born with Patiala Peg in hand.

 

 

A rap on the knuckles for AAP in Delhi, BJP humiliated May 17, 2016

Posted by simarp in : Elections, India , add a comment

I didn’t like Arvind Kejriwal’s tweet, indicating victory. It is a defeat by all yardsticks,  AAP’s attempt to paint defeat as victory is not going to help them drill deep to what all is going wrong within their framework.

13 MCD seats and AAP gets just 5, AAP must start working double quick. They are losing their base and they couldn’t activate their cadre to come out and vote. For AAP anything below 10 is losing ground on their home-turf and with 5 one can safely say they have lost 50% ground since they came to power.  Yes, if elections are held in Delhi AAP would manage to comeback, barely. This kind of drop indicates lot of failures on lot many fronts.

BJP is left wondering what wrong did it do now. Congress has a reason to say, we will come back. For BJP it is writing on the wall, BJP was confident that they will get almost all. Like AAP BJP has been hurt, more so than Congress which drew a zero in state elections just over an year ago. Congress got 4 with another going to a Congress rebel candidate, who may join Congress.
At the end of the day “Ye Dilli Hai, Sab Jaanti Hai” – This is the city of Delhi, it knows everything.

Social Media Strategy and Indian Politics February 28, 2016

Posted by simarp in : India, Social Media , add a comment

Indian Politics is high on Social Media, BJP is definitely front runner and AAP is a close second. All other parties including Congress have yet to figure out on how to leverage SM for their benefit. The biggest challenge in SM for political parties is to maintain the  three Cs – Current, Credible and Consistent. Almost always they are not able to balance the three Cs, their knee-jerk reactions make Cs move like pendulum, which doesn’t work at all. They can’t get 10 on all three Cs, but a 5-6 on all three would be good enough to create a baseline.

BJP is very strong in being current and consistent in their social media push, they are masters of this craft. However, their strategy is bereft of any credibility. There are several “Egg Accounts” and “Negative Accounts” which are deployed  and the biggest challenge is that BJP’s task force on SM gets abusive at slightest disagreement. Another big challenge is that the special purpose account holders are not trained to do profiling of SM accounts they are targeting, as a result of it burn rate and block rate is very high.  Doing away with Egg Accounts & Negative Accounts would immediately start paying them rich dividends.  On Facebook, BJP must take a very strong positive approach, probably should talk just about achievements and on Instagram share only a few pictures of Modi Ji, but focus on sharing photographs about changes happening at different places and highlighting the same.

AAP’s strategy is more about trigger and trust. Their official or personal accounts are used to trigger a debate and then they trust their supporters to take it forward. So far this strategy has been working well for them. They have what BJP campaign lacks – Credibility. AAP’s game plan lacks in both being current and consistent. They have no framework in place to get BJP’s fake and negative accounts undermined, they just start confronting them. They must make significant noise around them, which they don’t. Not being current and consistent diminishes  the yield which can accrue to them due to credibility they earn. AAP should seriously not try to copy BJP by wasting energy on making #tags against Modi and BJP trend. That erodes their credibility. They should just talk about what they are doing and what they wish to do but can’t do. That would be sufficient to make them happen.

As for Congress, they need to learn what is Social media before they start doing anything worthwhile. Their strategy is so flawed that they piggyback AAP when AAP is doing BJP bashing and piggyback BJP when Congress is being bashed by AAP. They should keep themselves at equidistant from both, which they just can’t. A result of this is, they are losing their individuality and cultural connect with internet users.

More to come…

 

 

Aam Aadmi Party Must Dodge A Scoial Media Disaster in Punjab? January 14, 2016

Posted by simarp in : India , add a comment

It looks like that  Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is doing a tactical blunder by giving importance to Arvind Kejriwal over the spirit of AAP. In Punjab and in all other states, what AAP needs to sell is AAP as a concept and not Arvind Kejriwal. Arvind Kejriwal is sold and sold well. He cannot be CM of 10 or 20 states. Overselling Arvind Kejriwal is going to damage AAP, exactly in the same way overselling Narendra Modi damaged BJP in Delhi and Bihar and also to a large extent in Maharashtra and Jammu and Kashmir. In J&K if BJP would’ve projected a Muslim CM candidate from day one and in Mahasrhtra Devendra Fadnavis, game would have been very different. Even in Delhi had they opted for a local BJP leader, for that matter even Vijay Goel, they would have performed better.

#HopeofPunjabKejriwal is a brain damaged #tag. Instead of this they must consider #AAPDaPunjab. Everyone knows that it is not going to be Kejriwal who is going to run Punjab, sp why project him larger than the party.  If AAP has to replicate BJP’s mistakes on social media, it will get the same result. If they project Sucha Singh Chottepur or Bhagwant Maan, it would create a very strong wave in favor of AAP, both are CM material and well respected in the state. Both have worked very hard since they got elected as MPs. They can even think of some other candidates who could be the face of AAP for Punjab. In the run up to the elections, Arvind Kejriwal must consider leaving post of Delhi CM and Getting Manish Sisodia to run Delhi. This would have a mind blowing Social Media impact and would put him at par with Narendra Modi Ji or even ahead of him in Social Media warfare. AAP must also consider pushing a CMDelhi Twitter account and FB account completely independent of Arvind Kejriwal. That account can later in the day be utilized to position new CM.

Social Media is a 100x Chessboard, if you don’t keep backups, game is over before it has started. The way AAP is currently handling its social media, it looks highly influenced by BJP’s strategy which was initially put in place, that strategy is no longer working for BJP hence has no chance to work for AAP. AAP must develop a strategy around itself, keeping its constraints in mind. AAP needs to be less vulnerable and more encompassing.Congress has tried to counter BJP but has failed misreably, AAP has had tremendous success so far, but it may run out of luck if it runs out of sensibilities.

AAP also needs to project itself as more inclusive, which is a surprise anyway and may not have been a need if SM would have been inclusive as the party claims itself to be.

It is in BJP’s Interest To Not Join Mehbooba Mufti’s Government January 11, 2016

Posted by simarp in : India , add a comment

I don’t believe in building suspense. For me it is is important to let the conclusion be known first so as those who have time to read me know whether it is worth a read or not.

I am sure it is in BJP’s interest to not be a part of Mehbooba Mufti’s Government in Jammu and Kashmir. This would allow them to play their Hindu card in UP elections and at the same be seen as victims despite trying to form a secular government with PDP.  Mehbooba Mufti is as right-winger Islamist as BJP’s spiritual master RSS is a right-winger Hindutva organization. Sooner or later this political equation has to collapse, if it collapses now it is a blessing in disguise for them. With no baggage of having an alliance with a radical Muslim party they can plan and do their calculations for Kerala, Tamilnadu, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. In all the four states BJP stands to gain without PDP. With PDP they are bound to suffer and many BJP supporters may not step out to vote at all.

Further BJP can start an agitation for a Jammu autonomous region within J&K with its own local government, which they are sure to start with, maybe they can even consider bifurcation of J&K into three states. If all goes well they can run Jammu & Ladakh both. Staying with Mehbooba Mufti is a big liability and her every speech is going to hurt them more. Mufti Saheb’s funeral exposed lack of people’s will, wish and blessings or PDP-BJP alliance. This is no rocket science and Mehbooba Mufti is bound to get very aggressive over next few months to protect her radical Muslim vote-bank.  Once that starts happening it will be impossible for BJP to escape from owning responsibility for what all is going majorly wrong with the state.   Moreover the way things are, number and intensity of attacks in Jammu region are likely to significantly mover up the danger zone. With BJP in power as a partner, it would be responsible for the attacks and if there is a double digit or a triple digit loss of Hindus, almost all the four states would see BJP suffering badly.

BJP has made a point by forming a Government in J&K and not being untouchable for almost anybody in the political system, except left, now is the time for it to book profits and move on.

BJP set to win Delhi Assembly November 11, 2008

Posted by simarprit in : India, Is anyone listening, News , add a comment

It looks like the clock has turned full circle, they Delhi lost due to inflation – they are likely to win due to inflation. Vijay Kumar Malhotra maynot be my choice for CM’s post but I can never cast my vote for a Congress candidate. To me to vote for Congress is not an option. Arun Jaitley would have made a much better CM, maybe he wants to play safe and be in the race for PM some day.

More to come